by David Safier
The Capitol Times (subscription only) analysed the vote data in the Flake-Carmona senatorial race and found that Carmona did better than a generic Democrat could be expected to do. He actually won a number of Republican-majority areas.
Carmona defeated Flake, a six-term East Valley congressman, in competitive-but-Republican-leaning precincts across the state. In the Ahwatukee-based Windmere precinct, where Republicans have an 9-point registration edge over Democrats, Carmona beat Flake by more than six percentage points, based on 2-way registration figures and head-to-head performance. In south Scottsdale’s Pueblo precinct, which has a 4.6 percent GOP registration edge, Carmona won more than 54 percent of the vote.
Not only that, he did better than Barber in CD-2 and Sinema in CD-9. That's quite a showing for a first time candidate against Flake, a well-known politician.
If Carmona runs for governor, he'll be able to pick up where he left off, with statewide face-and-name recognition and a base of people who voted for him two years earlier. Will that be enough to beat Ken Bennett or some Republican candidate to be named later? No telling, but it sure gives Carmona a leg up over any other Democrat in the state.