Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
This weekly Latino Decisions Tracking Poll has President Obama expanding his lead to 80% of poll respondents. The new poll out Wednesday suggests his support among the group is even larger in Arizona:
Why Arizona may be the surprise of 2012 – the big Latino vote that you didn’t see coming
New polling data out of Arizona released by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions suggests Arizona may be much closer than the polling averages indicate. A full 80% of Latinos say they plan to vote for Obama, compared to just 14% for Romney, and Latino enthusiasm is much, much higher in Arizona than the national average. In Latino Decisions national tracking poll 34% of Latinos say they are more excited about voting in 2012 while 36% say they were more excited back in 2008. In Arizona 60% are more enthusiastic in 2012 compared to just 16% who were more enthused in 2008.
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If Latino turnout is high in Arizona this year, it will be the Nevada of 2012 that takes the mainstream media by surprise.
Full results of the Arizona Latino poll are posted here. Among the poll highlights:
Arizona Latinos Favor Democrats by Wide Margins
- In the presidential race, 80% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for President Obama, while 14% said they will vote for Romney and 6% are undecided. The largest vote share for Obama of any state.
- In the U.S. Senate race, 75% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for Richard Carmona (D), while 12% said they will vote for Rep. Jeff Flake (R) and 13% are undecided.
- In addition, 69% of Arizona Latinos said they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their U.S. House race, while 14% will vote Republican and another 14% are undecided.
Candidates’ Immigration Positions Matter to Arizona Latinos
- 68% of respondents said that immigration was “the most important issue” or “one of the most important issues” in their voting decisions this year.
- After hearing about President Obama’s deferred action policy, 64% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about voting for Obama and 5% said that they were “less enthusiastic.” Meanwhile, after hearing about Mitt Romney’s statements on “self-deportation” and his support for Arizona’s SB 1070, 8% of respondents said that they were “more enthusiastic” about Romney and 67% of respondents said that they were “less enthusiastic.”
- Upon learning of Jeff Flake’s vote against the DREAM Act in 2010 and his support for increasing “border security instead of trying to stop the Arizona immigration law,” 59% of respondents said that they were “less enthusiastic” about Flake, while 8% said they were “more enthusiastic” about him.
- After hearing about Richard Carmona’s support for the DREAM Act and his praise of the Obama administration’s deferred action policy, 73% of respondents said that they felt “more enthusiastic” about Carmona, while only 5% said that they felt “less enthusiastic.”
Immigration is Not Just a Policy Issue: It’s Personal
- 55% of Arizona Latinos said that immigration was the most important issue facing the Latino community that Congress and the President should address. This was followed by 44% who said that the economy was the most important issue.
- 66% of Arizona Latinos know someone who is undocumented, and 55% know someone who may be eligible for the DREAM Act.
- When asked “thinking ahead to the November 2012 presidential election, how enthusiastic are you about voting in the election next year?,” 69% of respondents said that they were “very enthusiastic” about voting in the upcoming election. In a separate question that asked “would you say you are more enthusiastic about voting in 2012, or that you were more enthusiastic about voting back in 2008?” 60% said that they were “more enthusiastic” about voting in 2012 than they were about voting in 2008.
The sleeping giant may finally be awakening. I have said for sone time now that Governor Jan Brewer and SB 1070 may be the next Governor Pete Wilson and Prop. 187, which made California a reliably blue state.