Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The GOP "house effect" pollster Rasmussen Reports is out with a new poll today, Arizona Senate - Rasmussen Reports™:
The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Republican Congressman Jeff Flake with 47% of the vote to Democrat Richard Carmona’s 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on September 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percent.
Rasmussen Reports has consistently demonstrated a GOP "house effect" and GOP bias in past elections. Nate Silver's analysis of all pollsters after the 2010 election found that Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly - NYTimes.com:
It did not make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News [Pulse Opinion Research] had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.
In short, the alleged six point Flake lead is entirely Rasmussen "house effect" and likely a statistical tie.
A second poll released today was conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Carmona campaign and is also statistical tie. Press release from the Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign:
New poll shows Arizona U.S. Senate race tied
Anzalone Liszt Research poll shows growth potential for Carmona, ceiling for Flake
A new poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research shows Dr. Richard Carmona in a statistical tie with less than 6 weeks until Election Day. The poll, commissioned by the Carmona campaign, demonstrates Dr. Carmona still has significant growth potential, while Congressman Jeff Flake has only lukewarm support.
Currently, 44 percent support Flake, 43 percent choose Carmona and 3 percent back Libertarian Marc Victor. You can view the Anzalone Liszt Research memo on the poll and methodology here.
Carmona's favorability rating in Arizona is more than twice his unfavorable rating, 34 percent to 15 percent. Among Independents, Carmona is viewed favorably by 47 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent. And over the last month, Carmona's name ID has gone from 30 percent to 48 percent.
Congressman Flake, meanwhile is underwater with Independents -- 38 percent viewed him favorably and 40 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Notably, the poll was conducted prior to the Carmona campaign's latest ad contrasting the two candidates' positions on veterans' issues.
"We've believed all along that once Independent and moderate voters got to know Dr. Carmona, they'd like him," said Carmona for Arizona Communications Director Andy Barr. "Dr. Carmona is a lifelong Independent and a truly unique candidate who has spent his life serving Arizona and the nation. Congressman Flake is a career politician and former lobbyist. This poll shows that Arizonans are starting to see the clear choice in this race."
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted 600 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted between September 18-23, 2012. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 4.0 percent.