Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
I always warn people that there is only one poll that counts, and that is election day. Turn in your mail-in ballot if you have not already done so -- DO NOT mail it today -- or get yourself to your polling location to vote on Tuesday.
Public Policy Polling, one of the most accurate polling firms over the last few election cycles, is out with a poll in the CD 8 Special Election on Tuesday. Dems likely to hold Giffords seat - Public Policy Polling:
Democrat Ron Barber leads with 53% to 41% for Republican Jesse Kelly, with Green Party candidate Charlie Manolakis polling at 4%. Barber is well liked by voters in the district, sporting a 54/38 favorability rating. Kelly, meanwhile, has very high negatives with only 37% of voters rating him positively while 59% have a negative opinion.
We find that the likely electorate for tomorrow's election supported Barack Obama over John McCain 50-44. McCain actually won the district by a 48-42 margin in 2008. This, along with the special election in New York's 26th Congressional District last May, is one of only two races recently where we've found a likely electorate significantly more Democratic than the Presidential one in 2008, and it suggests Democrats are unusually motivated to come out and vote to keep Giffords' seat in their hands.
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Barber appears to have the race pretty much already locked up. 57% of voters say they've already cast their ballots, and with that group Barber enjoys a 21 point advantage at 58-37. People planning to vote tomorrow are much more evenly split with 46% for Barber and 45% for Kelly.
Barber's winning 90% of the Democratic vote, while Kelly's getting just 82% of Republicans. Barber also has a 51-34 advantage with independents. Barber's advantage is pretty thorough along demographic lines- he leads with men, women, whites, Hispanics, and voters in every age group.
One final note- 67% of voters in Giffords' district have a positive opinion of her to only 24% with a negative one. There aren't many special House elections where the departing incumbent has a 67% favorability rating, and that fact makes this a very difficult one for the GOP to win.
Full results here