Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Arizona Republic reports at its AZ/DC Blog - azdc - Poll shows Carmona trailing Flake by just 2 points:
A new poll out out Tuesday shows Democratic former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona in a dead heat with U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., in the race for retiring U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl's seat.
Republicans are sure to be skeptical of the survey of 791 likely Arizona voters, which was conducted June 4 and June 5 by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for the liberal organization Project New America. The pollsters said they oversampled registered independents.
The poll shows Flake leading Carmona by a narrow 43 percent to 41 percent. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent, making the match-up a statistical tie.
[PPP was not polling the GOP primary between Jeff Flake and three Republican opponents including self-funded millionaire Wil Cardon.]
The survey also indicates that President Barack Obama is behind Republican nominee-in-waiting Mitt Romney by a similarly close 3 percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Both races are within the poll’s +/-3.5% margin of error.
From the poll release http://projectnewamerica.com/PNAAZPollJune2012.pdf:
Strong support from independent voters has Democratic candidates within striking distance of Republicans in Arizona.
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“Moderate independent voters make up a substantial portion of the Arizona electorate, and it’s very difficult to win elections without their support,” said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New America.
“This poll shows that Democrats are gaining ground among independent voters. If this trend continues, we should expect Arizona to remain competitive through November.”
PNA also conducted an oversample of 529 self-identified independent voters. The oversample made clear that the Republican brand is unpopular among this critical group.
The 23% of voters who describe themselves as independent from either political party have decidedly negative opinions of prominent GOP officials. Just 35% of these voters have a positive opinion of Mitt Romney, compared to 53% who have a negative opinion of him. Republican Governor Jan Brewer has a similar 36-54 approve-disapprove rating among independents.
Obama, meanwhile, has a positive 51-43 approval rating among independent voters, who prefer the President over Romney by 51-39.