By Michael Bryan
The Kelly campaign today leaked a poll by National Research which headlines him "beating" Ron Barber 49% to 45%.
The poll also indicates that he is the only GOP candidate who can do that. Imagine that. Barber beats Sitton and Antenori by a few points (43% to 39% and 46% to 40%) and ties with McSally (42% each).
The problem with that headline is the size of poll and the margin of error.
The poll is only 300 likely voters (with no note as to the party composition of the respondents - and thus totally irrelevant) with a MoE of a whopping +/- 5.66%.
That means that all the candidates are statistically tied. All of them. The poll is essentially meaningless. Anyone could win.
The touted 4 percent Kelly "win" is well within the MoE.
So what should the headline be?
Kelly Lies With Statistics.