Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
I warned you not to believe the flawed polling from GOP pollster Rasmussen earlier this week. Don't believe it: Rasmussen has become an outlier poll Of course, the Arizona media is too cheap to hire its own independent polling firm to get a more accurate depiction of public opinion in Arizona, so they keep citing the outlier Rasmussen poll press releases as if it is gospel truth. Do you think maybe it is because the biased numbers from Rasmussen fit the Arizona media's preconceived narrative for Election 2010? The Arizona media wouldn't purposefully mislead you, now would they?
There is a new independent poll out this week from Public Policy Polling which entirely refutes the flawed Rasmussen poll. Public Policy Polling: Goddard leads in Arizona:
Terry Goddard still leads all of his Republican opponents in the race, incumbent Jan Brewer's position has improved a good deal since PPP last looked at the state in September.
In the most likely match up for this fall Goddard leads Brewer 47-44. That represents a tightening since Goddard held a 46-36 lead over her last fall. Partisan preferences have hardened in the wake of Brewer's signing a tough immigration bill last week. Where Brewer was getting only 59% of the Republican vote in our last poll, she's now at 73%. But Goddard has seen a similar improvement in his own party, improving from 77% of the Democratic vote to 88%. The main reason for the overall tightening is that where Brewer trailed Goddard by 12 points with independents previously, that's now just a 2 point deficit.
There has been a great deal of movement along racial lines. In the September poll Goddard had a 3 point lead with white voters, but he now trails Brewer by 8. At the same time he's increased his lead with Hispanic voters from 20 points to 46. There are a lot more white voters in the state than Hispanic ones so from a cynical, purely political perspective Brewer's actions last week probably did her some good.
Goddard has more comfortable leads against the rest of the Republican field. He leads Buz Mills 45-37, Dean Martin 47-36, and John Munger 46-31. In a hypothetical contest against Joe Arpaio he holds a 47-44 advantage identical to the one he posts against Brewer.
Brewer is still not very popular, with 35% of voters in the state approving of her job performance and 46% disapproving. But those numbers represent a significant improvement from where she stood last fall, when the approval was a 26/43 spread. Her greatest gains have come with Republicans who now give her a positive 54/27 approval after previously giving her a negative 28/37. She's still on negative ground with independents but has seen an improvement there as well, from 26/46 to 33/39. The reason her overall numbers are negative though is that Democrats have turned against her in a big way- her disapproval with them has spiked from 48% to 75%.
This is likely to be a tight race, and after last week perhaps one of the most closely watched contests in the country this year.
Full results here
This Republican Legislature and Governor are without equal the worst failures in Arizona history. Their disregard for the Arizona Constitution and the rule of law, their gross incompetence at governing this state, and their reckless fiscal irresponsibility are without parallel. By any reasonable measure of governance, not one of these ideological extremist Republicans should be returned to office. It shouldn't even be close, it should be a landslide blow-out.
But as I have warned you several times, the Republicans have settled upon a cynical and divisive distraction issue to make the voting public forget all about what a god-awful failure this Republican Legislature and Governor are.
The Republicans are going back to the well one more time to play the race card and seek to divide the voting public along tribal lines of race. To accomplish this, the Republicans have enacted the "papers please" anti-immigrant law to demonize and scapegoat Hispanics. And the Republican Legislature placed on the November ballot Ward Connerly's anti-affirmative action measure as a referendum. No minority is safe from these "white makes right" Republicans.
The Public Policy Polling numbers above indicate that Republicans are enjoying some success in moving this election away from a referendum on the failure of this Republican Legislature and Governor and holding them accountable. They are succeeding in making this election about the tribalism of racial identity politics.
And that is the fault of the feckless Arizona political media for not holding the Republicans accountable for their failures, or calling them out for their cynical and divisive strategy of playing the race card in Election 2010.
It is up to you, the voters, to realize how you are being manipulated, and not to give in to irrational fear and prejudice. Election 2010 must be a referendum on 44 years of failure from Republican rule in Arizona. This failed Republican Legislature and Governor must be held accountable for their actions. For the future of Arizona, Republicans must go.