by David Safier
Today's premier political number cruncher is Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. His predictions are right ridiculously often, not only picking which candidate will win, but regularly getting closer than anyone else on what the margin will be.
That said, Silver is handicapping the House's chances of passing the healthcare bill that came out of Waxman's Energy and Commerce Committee. He thinks it will pass by a narrow margin, about 222-212.
He also rates the chances of various Reps voting for the bill. Here are the chances he gives of our five AZ Dems voting Aye:
Kirkpatrick: 5.8%
Mitchell: 15.4%
Giffords: 21.5%
Grijalva: over 99.5%
Pastor: over 99.5%
Doesn't mean anything, of course. It's just one man's prediction. But he sure doesn't make three of our House Dems look very good.
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